Factors predicting survival after post-transplant hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence

Although factors associated with an increased risk of recurrence after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been extensively studied, the history of patients with a post-transplant recurrence is poorly known. Patients experiencing a post-transplant HCC recurrence from 1996 to 2011 in two transplant programs were included. Demographic, transplant, and post-recurrence variables were assessed. Thirty patients experienced an HCC recurrence-22 men and 8 women with a mean age of 55 +/- A 6 years. Sixteen (53 %) were outside the Milan criteria at the time of transplantation. Most recurrences (60 %) appeared within the first 18 months after transplantation, ranging between 1.7 and 109 months (median 14.2 months). Mean post-recurrence survival was 33 +/- A 31 months. On univariate analysis, total tumor volume (TTV; p = 0.047), microvascular invasion (p = 0.011), and time from transplant to recurrence (p = 0.001) predicted post-recurrence survival. On multivariate analysis, both time from transplant to recurrence (p = 0.001) and history of rejection (p = 0.043), but not the location of the recurrence or the type of recurrence treatment, predicted post-recurrence survival. This study suggests that patients with early post-transplant HCC recurrence have worse outcomes. Those with a history of graft rejection have better survivals, possibly due to more active anti-cancer immunity.