Evolution of a cyanobacterial bloom forecast system in western Lake Erie: Development and initial evaluation

In the summer of 2008 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration began monitoring cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Erie using high temporal resolution satellite imagery. In 2009, a forecast of bloom transport was also developed using a hydrodynamic model to forecast the trajectory of the bloom. These forecasts have been disseminated from 2008 to the present in the form of a bulletin which is emailed to local managers, health departments, researchers and other stakeholders. The number of bulletins issued each year, as well as the number of subscribers that receive the weekly bulletins, has increased significantly every year that the system has been in place. This manuscript discusses results from the first 3 years that the forecasts were distributed (2008-2010), describes the components of the forecasts, and will conclude with possible improvements that could be made to the forecast system. Harmful algal blooms of the genus Microcystis were found in all 3 years, and the development of these blooms was associated with water temperatures >18 degrees C and wind stresses <0.04 Pa. Wind stresses >0.1 Pa were associated with bloom dispersement as were temperatures <18 degrees C. The present forecasting system was deemed adequate, but improvements in the use of additional remote sensing products and post-processing would yield a more accurate forecast. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Association for Great Lakes Research.