Journal
JOURNAL OF GEOTECHNICAL AND GEOENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Volume 138, Issue 11, Pages 1398-1406Publisher
ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000711
Keywords
Slope stability; System reliability; Response surface method; FORM; Monte Carlo simulation
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The need for probabilistic slope analysis that takes into account the uncertainty of soil properties has been acknowledged by the geotechnical profession. Traditionally, probabilistic slope analysis involves only single-mode failure that is considered based on the critical slip surface. This may result in underestimating the failure probability. In contrast, system reliability analysis for slopes is deemed more rational. This study aims at improving the existing methods of slope reliability analysis by considering system reliability. A stratified response surface method (stratified RSM) is proposed to describe the performance functions of possible failure modes. The proposed method differs from conventional response-surface-based slope reliability analysis (which constructs a single approximate performance function) by generating a group of (stratified) response surfaces. Based on these stratified response surfaces, system reliability analysis can be efficiently carried out by means of either a first-order reliability method (FORM) or Monte Carlo simulations. The efficient FORM based on the concept of a dispersion ellipsoid in the space of the original variables is used. Application of the proposed approach to probabilistic assessment of slopes is illustrated by case studies, and the results obtained are comparedwithMonte Carlo simulations. DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000711. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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