An empirical model of magnetospheric chorus amplitude using solar wind and geomagnetic indices

Magnetospheric chorus is an Extremely Low Frequency/Very Low Frequency (ELF/VLF, 0.3-30 kHz) electromagnetic wave phenomenon which plays an important role in the acceleration and loss of energetic electrons in the Earth's radiation belts. One must therefore possess accurate estimates of chorus amplitudes in order to model radiation belt dynamics. The goal of this study is to design an empirical model of chorus amplitude, the output of which can be used as input to models of radiation belt dynamics. In pursuit of this goal, we compare two related empirical models of chorus amplitude that we have developed based on THEMIS data from June 2008 through December 2011 which use multiple regression to predict equatorial chorus amplitudes as a function of L and MLT. One model uses only AE* and K-p as model inputs, and the other model utilizes solar wind measurements and geomagnetic indices. The models perform similarly, with each one achieving a median RMS prediction error of 0.39 log(10) pT (a factor of 2.5 in amplitude). The coefficients of determination of chorus amplitude for the full model and the AE*/K-p model are 0.034 and 0.026, respectively, meaning that these models explain 3.4 and 2.6 percent of the variance of chorus amplitude. We present a parametric analysis, showing the expected effects on chorus amplitude from a modeled substorm and solar wind pressure pulse, as well as modeled chorus amplitude over the course of the month of September 2008. The model outputs give important insight into the global evolution of equatorial chorus amplitude as a function of geomagnetic storm and substorm phase. Citation: Golden, D. I., M. Spasojevic, W. Li, and Y. Nishimura (2012), An empirical model of magnetospheric chorus amplitude using solar wind and geomagnetic indices, J. Geophys. Res., 117, A12204, doi:10.1029/2012JA018210.