Determination of slow slip episodes and strain accumulation along the Cascadia margin

Continuous GPS stations in the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array network clearly record subduction-related strain accumulation and slow slip episodes along the Cascadia convergent margin. Many of the slow slip episodes have been correlated in time and space with seismic evidence for nonvolcanic tremor, leading to the previous discovery of episodic tremor and slip (ETS). In this study, we use a hyperbolic tangent curve fitting technique for the identification of slow slip times and displacement magnitudes within the GPS time series, independent of seismic tremor data. We then apply this technique to study the patterns of strain accumulation and release associated with ETS events and characterize patterns of coupling associated with the locked and transition zones of the plate interface. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this automated technique for both identification of slow slip observations and calculation of slow slip displacements. Recurrence patterns in the distribution of GPS observations demonstrate coherence among neighboring stations over time and apparent along-strike segmentation of the subduction interface. When slow slip events are removed from the time series, we can estimate the total site velocities between slow slip events. These velocities decay as depth to the subduction interface increases, but they diverge from the long-term trends expected from the interseismic cycle at similar to 30-60 km above the interface, consistent with the location where slow slip displacements occur. Forward modeling of coupling on the plate interface reveals that in between slow slip events there is a patch of at least 30% coupling from 20 to 35 km depth, which is needed to produce the observed back slip displacements. Intriguingly, our best fitting models have a decrease in coupling down to similar to 30% at similar to 20 km depth followed by a peak of greater than 80% coupling at similar to 30-35 km depth, suggesting the source zone for ETS events acts as a distinct locking zone that releases strain more frequently than the updip seismogenic locked zone, although a zone of constant similar to 30% coupling cannot be ruled out with this data set. Such a scenario indicates that frictional behavior with depth follows a more complex model than a simple temperature controlled transition. We propose that coupling initially decreases with depth due to a decrease in strength of the overriding lower crust, but then coupling increases again when the subducting plate comes in contact with the stronger overriding mantle.