Wetland methane emissions during the Last Glacial Maximum estimated from PMIP2 simulations: Climate, vegetation, and geographic controls

It is an open question to what extent wetlands contributed to the interglacial-glacial decrease in atmospheric methane concentration. Here we estimate methane emissions from glacial wetlands, using newly available PMIP2 simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate from coupled atmosphere-ocean and atmosphere-ocean vegetation models. These simulations apply improved boundary conditions resulting in better agreement with paleoclimatic data than earlier PMIP1 simulations. Emissions are computed from the dominant controls of water table depth, soil temperature, and plant productivity, and we analyze the relative role of each factor in the glacial decline. It is found that latitudinal changes in soil moisture, in combination with ice sheet expansion, cause boreal wetlands to shift southward in all simulations. This southward migration is instrumental in maintaining the boreal wetland source at a significant level. The mean emission temperature over boreal wetlands drops by only a few degrees, despite the strong overall cooling. The temperature effect on the glacial decline in the methane flux is therefore moderate, while reduced plant productivity contributes equally to the total reduction. Model results indicate a relatively small boreal and large tropical source during the LGM, with wetlands on the exposed continental shelves mainly contributing to the tropical source. This distribution in emissions is consistent with the low interpolar difference in glacial methane concentrations derived from ice core data.