Journal
JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH
Volume 19, Issue 1, Pages 174-183Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1007/s10310-013-0401-6
Keywords
Anthropogenic activities; Plant indicators; Potential habitat; Species distribution model
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Funding
- species distribution prediction research project of the National Institute of Biological Resources of the Ministry of the Environment, Korea
- Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan [S-8]
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To quantitatively assess future change of evergreen broad-leaved tree species' distributions in human-disturbed landscapes of the Korean Peninsula under climate change, potential habitats (PHs) were projected for four important evergreen broad-leaved tree species (Quercus acuta, Castanopsis sieboldii, Machilus thunbergii, and Neolitsea sericea) by species distribution models (SDMs). The distribution data (presence/absence) of the target species in Korea and Japan were used as response variables for SDMs, and climatic data were used as explanatory variables. Three general circulation models under A2 emission scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the years 2070-2099. Potential habitats masked by land-use data (PHLUs) were projected to assess the impact of anthropogenic activities. Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for all the target species. The current PHs were decreased to 21-35 % by the anthropogenic activities. Future PHLUs for all the target species were projected to increase by 2.0-18.5 times of current PHLUs. These results suggest that all the target species are applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula, even if anthropogenic effects are incorporated. Variation of the increasing rate was caused by the differences in the response to temperature changes. M. thunbergii responded sensitively to the increase of minimum temperature of coldest month and had a largest increase in PHLUs under future climate. Therefore, M. thunbergii is considered to be most appropriate species for monitoring the changes of horizontal distributions above all focal evergreen broad-leaved tree species.
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