Journal
JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY-LEARNING MEMORY AND COGNITION
Volume 34, Issue 1, Pages 167-185Publisher
AMER PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSOC
DOI: 10.1037/0278-7393.34.1.167
Keywords
risk taking; learning; Bayesian; individual differences; cognitive psychometrics
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Funding
- NIDA NIH HHS [R21-DA14699] Funding Source: Medline
- NIMH NIH HHS [MH019879] Funding Source: Medline
- NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF MENTAL HEALTH [T32MH019879] Funding Source: NIH RePORTER
- NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON DRUG ABUSE [R21DA014699] Funding Source: NIH RePORTER
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A sequential risk-taking paradigm used to identify real-world risk takers invokes both learning and decision processes. This article expands the paradigm to a larger class of tasks with different stochastic environments and different learning requirements. Generalizing a Bayesian sequential risk-taking model to the larger set of tasks clarifies the roles of learning and decision making during sequential risky choice. Results show that respondents adapt their teaming processes and associated mental representations of the task to the stochastic environment. Furthermore, their Bayesian learning processes are shown to interfere with the paradigm's identification of risky drug use, whereas the decision-making process facilitates its diagnosticity. Theoretical implications of the results in terms of both understanding risk-taking behavior and improving risk-taking assessment methods are discussed.
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