Prediction Models of Prevalent Radiographic Vertebral Fractures Among Older Men

No studies have compared how well different prediction models discriminate older men who have a radiographic prevalent vertebral fracture (PVFx) from those who do not. We used area under receiver operating characteristic curves and a net reclassification index to compare how well regression-derived prediction models and nonregression prediction tools identify PVFx among men age >= 65 yr with femoral neck T-score of -1.0 or less enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study. The area under receiver operating characteristic for a model with age, bone mineral density, and historical height loss (HHL) was 0.682 compared with 0.692 for a complex model with age, bone mineral density, HHL, prior non-spine fracture, body mass index, back pain, grip strength, smoking, and glucocorticoid use (p values for difference in 5 bootstrapped samples 0.14-0.92). This complex model, using a cutpoint prevalence of 5%, correctly reclassified only a net 5.7% (p = 0.13) of men as having or not having a PVFx compared with a simple criteria list (age >= 80 yr, HHL > 4 cm, or glucocorticoid use). In conclusion, simple criteria identify older men with PVFx and regression-based models. Future research to identify additional risk factors that more accurately identify older men with PVFx is needed.