Journal
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
Volume 26, Issue 17, Pages 6309-6322Publisher
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00360.1
Keywords
Atmosphere-ocean interaction; ENSO; Climate models
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Funding
- Utah State University Agricultural Experiment Station [8472]
- Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy as part of the Earth System Modeling program
- National Science Foundation
- Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy
- Department of Energy [DE-AC06-76RLO1830]
- [NNX13AC37G]
- [MOTC-CWB-101-M-15]
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Using multiple observational and model datasets, the authors document a strengthening relationship between boreal winter sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the development of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the following year. The increased WNP-ENSO association emerged in the mid-twentieth century and has grown through the present, reaching correlation coefficients as high as similar to 0.70 in recent decades. Fully coupled climate experiments with the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), replicate the WNP-ENSO association and indicate that greenhouse gases (GHGs) are largely responsible for this observed increase. The authors speculate that shifts in the location of the largest positive SST trends between the subtropical and tropical western Pacific impact the low-level circulation in a manner that reinforces the link between the WNP and the development of ENSO. A strengthened GHG-driven relationship with the WNP provides an example of how anthropogenic climate change may directly influence one of the most prominent patterns of natural climate variability, ENSO, and potentially improve the skill of intraseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction.
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