Different El Nino Types and Tropical Cyclone Landfall in East Asia

This study examines whether there exist significant differences in tropical cyclone (TC) landfall between central Pacific (CP) El Nino, eastern Pacific (EP) El Nino, and La Nina during the peak TC season (June-October) and how and to what extent CP El Nino influences TC landfall over East Asia for the period 1961-2009. The peak TC season is subdivided into summer [June-August (JJA)] and autumn [September-October (SO)]. The results are summarized as follows: (i) during the summer of CP El Nino years, TCs are more likely to make landfall over East Asia because of a strong easterly steering flow anomaly induced by the westward shift of the subtropical high and northward-shifted TC genesis. In particular, TCs have a greater probability of making landfall over Japan and Korea during the summer of CP El Nino years. (ii) In the autumn of CP El Nino years, TC landfall in most areas of East Asia, especially Indochina, the Malay Peninsula, and the Philippines, is likely to be suppressed because the large-scale circulation resembles that of EP El Nino years. (iii) During the whole peak TC season [June-October (JJASO)] of CP El Nino years, TCs are more likely to make landfall over Japan and Korea. TC landfall in East Asia as a whole has an insignificant association with CP El Nino during the peak TC season. In addition, more (less) TCs are likely to make landfall in China, Indochina, the Malay Peninsula, and the Philippines during the peak TC season of La Nina (EP El Nino) years.