Journal
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
Volume 23, Issue 4, Pages 1004-1013Publisher
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2918.1
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Funding
- Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
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The nature of the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events (ERE) in central India is investigated by relating their occurrence to synoptic activity. Using a long record of the paths and intensities of monsoon synoptic disturbances, a synoptic activity index (SAI) is defined whose interannual variation correlates strongly with that in the number of ERE, demonstrating a strong connection between these phenomena. SAI furthermore shows a rising trend that is statistically indistinguishable from that in ERE, indicating that the increasing frequency of ERE is likely attributable to a rising trend in synoptic activity. This synoptic activity increase results from a rising trend in relatively weak low pressure systems (LPS), and it outweighs a declining trend in stronger LPS.
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