Journal
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
Volume 22, Issue 16, Pages 4418-4426Publisher
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2931.1
Keywords
-
Categories
Funding
- National Science Foundation [ATM-0443512, ATM-0621737, ATM-0603555, EAR-0811099, ARC-0327664]
- NOAA [NA080AR4310592]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
The warming trend in global surface temperatures over the last 40 yr is clear and consistent with anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. Over the last 2 decades, this trend appears to have accelerated. In contrast to this general behavior, however, here it is shown that trends during the boreal cold months in the recent period have developed a marked asymmetry between early winter and late winter for the Northern Hemisphere, with vigorous warming in October-December followed by a reversal to a neutral/cold trend in January-March. This observed asymmetry in the cold half of the boreal year is linked to a two-way stratosphere-troposphere interaction, which is strongest in the Northern Hemisphere during late winter and is related to variability in Eurasian land surface conditions during autumn. This link has been demonstrated for year-to-year variability and used to improve seasonal time-scale winter forecasts; here, this coupling is shown to strongly modulate the warming trend, with implications for decadal-scale temperature projections.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available