Diffusion paths for micro cogeneration using hydrogen in the Netherlands

We estimate the diffusion of micro cogeneration systems (MiCoGen) using hydrogen produced from natural gas in the Netherlands for the 2000-2050 period on the basis of economical factors. The diffusion is important for the transition to a hydrogen economy based on renewables, with natural gas paving the way for hydrogen from renewables. For three scenarios full diffusion takes place in the period 2020-2050. The most important factors behind the diffusion are: (1) growing energy demand, resulting in lower hydrogen costs and higher energy costs in the reference case and (2) lower costs of MiCoGen stemming from learning economies. The model is advanced by considering all costs components for heterogeneous users which have been calculated for the entire diffusion period. It is the first threshold diffusion model that is being applied to the diffusion of technological clusters involving new or adapted infrastructures. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.