Has the Three Norths Forest Shelterbelt Program solved the desertification and dust storm problems in arid and semiarid China?

From the late 1970s to the present, a large-scale afforestation program called the Three Norths Forest Shelterbelt program was carried out to combat desertification and control dust storms in China. However, few detailed and systemic assessments have evaluated its success despite the huge investment in the program, its long-term, the extensive area covered by the program, and the importance of combating desertification and controlling dust storms. Although numerous Chinese researchers and government officials have claimed that the afforestation has successfully combated desertification and controlled dust storms, there is surprisingly little unassailable evidence to support their claims. Using basic data on afforestation, desertification, and dust storms, we assessed the effects of this afforestation on combating desertification and controlling dust storms. Although the large-scale afforestation program may have had some beneficial effects on reducing dust storms and controlling desertification in China, the results of our analysis suggest that the importance of this project seems to have been overstated. Thus, future research must seek stronger and more direct evidence for the causal relationships that we have proposed as possible explanations for the observed trends, and the true significance of the Three Norths program should be reassessed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.