Balancing research and funding using value of information and portfolio tools for nanomaterial risk classification

Risk research for nanomaterials is currently prioritized by means of expert workshops and other deliberative processes. However, analytical techniques that quantify and compare alternative research investments are increasingly recommended. Here, we apply value of information and portfolio decision analysis methods commonly applied in financial and operations management to prioritize risk research for multiwalled carbon nanotubes and nanoparticulate silver and titanium dioxide. We modify the widely accepted CB Nanotool hazard evaluation framework, which combines nano- and bulk-material properties into a hazard score, to operate probabilistically with uncertain inputs. Literature is reviewed to develop uncertain estimates for each input parameter, and a Monte Carlo simulation is applied to assess how different research strategies can improve hazard classification. The relative cost of each research experiment is elicited from experts, which enables identification of efficient research portfolios combinations of experiments that lead to the greatest improvement in hazard classification at the lowest cost. Nanoparticle shape, diameter, solubility and surface reactivity were most frequently identified within efficient portfolios in our results.