Assessment of urban ecological risk from spatial interaction models for Lijiang City

Rapid growth in land use has caused problems such as waste of natural resources, geological disasters and damage to heritage through the social, economic and environmental impacts of urban sprawl. In this paper, a new model and index system of urban ecological risk assessment (ERA) based on geographic information system (GIS) was built. To identify and classify urban ecological risk factors, three crucial parameters are described: land use features, spatial distance between receptors and risk sources and developed area. World Cultural Heritage conservation areas serve as key receptors, while expansion of land use for construction results in massive urbanisation as a risk source. To analyse the relationships between the receptors and risk sources, a spatial interaction model (SIM), spatial analysis with GIS and geostatistical methods were used. The results show that urban sprawl land threatens Lijiang's land-use patterns. The Lashihai wetland and Wenbi reservoir are at highest risk, while Jade Dragon Snow Mountain is only slightly affected. This research provides further and more comprehensive technical support for identifying potential ecological risk and guaranteeing ecological security in zoning and achieving sustainable development of Lijiang City.