Journal
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
Volume 33, Issue 15, Pages 3229-3248Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/joc.3670
Keywords
precipitation extremes; annual and seasonal trend analysis; multi-day precipitation events; Basilicata; southern Italy
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Changes in precipitation extremes for the Basilicata region, southern Italy, have been analyzed using data from 55 precipitation stations with complete daily time series during the period 1951-2010. All the series were submitted to quality control assessment and homogenization. To detect possible trends the time series analysis was performed with the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. The annual and seasonal total precipitation underwent a general downward trend over the period 1951-2010 mainly due to the autumn-winter decrease of precipitation, although the tendency for the last decade is clearly positive. The precipitation intensity shows a general positive trend, mainly due to the upward trend of spring. The dry spell mean has increased throughout the region over 1951-2010, even if a really important opposite trend characterizes the last decade. The wet spell mean has decreased throughout the region from 1951 to 2010, although a strong inversion of tendency has been recorded in the last 10years. Trends in the extreme daily precipitation have indicated a general downward tendency, mainly during the summer season. The analysis of multi-day sequences of moderate to heavy rainfall has indicated a corresponding increase in their frequency and intensity, especially in the last decade. The overall results indicate a present hydroclimatic regime characterized by an increase in total rainfall and precipitation intensity and a small decrease in dry spell lengths. The positive change in precipitation magnitude is due to multi-day extreme precipitation rather than to single-day precipitation. This last observation is very important for its huge hydrological impact on the environment. In Basilicata, the increase in intensity/frequency of multi-days extreme events has led to the growth of severe flooding and landsliding events, not only in autumn and winter, but even in the early spring.
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