Journal
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
Volume 29, Issue 11, Pages 1550-1559Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/joc.1796
Keywords
glacier mass balance; Peyto; downscaling; ensemble projections; climate change scenarios
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Funding
- Visiting Fellowship to Canadian Government Laboratories awarded to C. Matulla through NSERC
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We apply a direct downscaling approach to generate ensembles of local-scale glacier mass balance projections from coarse-scale general circulation model (GCM) data. The general modes of the atmospheric circulation over a large geographical region are linked statistically to Peyto Glacier's winter and summer balance separately. Our study focuses on the generation of ensemble projections derived from simulations with ECHAM5-MPIOM forced with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A1B and B1. The resulting ensembles of mass balance projections show a moderate increase in winter balance and a steep decrease in summer balance. Together these results suggest Continued frontal recession and downwasting of Peyto Glacier and a shift of the equilibrium line altitude by Lit least 100 m above that estimated for the 1966-2001 period suggesting that very little of the glacier will remain by 2100. Copyright (C) 2008 Crown in the right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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