Spatio-temporal climatic change of rainfall in east Java Indonesia

Spatial and temporal rainfall analysis of the Brantas Catchment Area (DAS Brantas), East Java, from 1955 to 2005 based on 40 rainfall stations with monthly rainfall data derived from daily rainfall data has been performed. To identify the climatic trend and annual changes in the area over the last five decades, we use the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method based on multivariate statistics, followed by the fast Fourier transform (FFT) method for the power density spectrum analysis, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test and the wavelet transform method. With EOF, we found the monsoonal rainfall pattern as the most dominant in this area, which explains about 72% of all variances. Without the annual signal, the leading EOF shows significant ENSO-modulated inter-annual and seasonal variabilities, especially during the second transitional period. We found a common and significant negative trend of accumulated rainfall and a negative trend of the monsoonal strength and dominance. This finding leads to changes in the annual pattern, which are increase in the ratio of rainfall during the wet season and increase of the dry spell period or the imbalance of the annual pattern. The increased ratio of the rainfall in. the wet season has led to an increased threat of drought in the dry season and extreme weather in the wet season in recent decades. The role of the orographic effect had been detected from the decadal pattern, in which the high-altitude areas have greater rainfall amount all year round. From the decadal isohyets in December/January/February (DJF) and June/July/August (JJA), the rainfall amount decreased significantly during the last five decades as shown by a persistent increase of areas with low rainfall amount. By comparing the time series of rainfall data in two locations, the mountain and coastal areas, we discovered that the dry periods have increased, mainly in the low altitude at-ea. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society.