Risk of gastric cancer in asymptomatic, middle-aged Japanese subjects based on serum pepsinogen and Helicobacter pylori antibody levels

A total of 5,209 asymptomatic, middle-aged subjects, whose serum pepsinogen (PG) and Helicobacter pylori antibody levels had been assessed, were followed for 10 years. Subjects with positive serum H. pylori antibodies (> 50 U/mL) bad an increased cancer risk (HR = 3.48, 95% CI = 1.26-9.64). Risk of gastric cancer increased as the antibody level increased; the H. pylori-positive group with antibody levels > 500 U/mL had the highest incidence rate (325/100,000 person-years). Cancer development also increased with a reduced serum PG I level or a reduced PG I/II ratio; the risk was significantly elevated with serum PG I level <= 30 ng/mL (HR = 3.54, 95% CI = 1.95-6.40) or PG I/II ratio <= 3.0 (HR = 4.25, 95% CI = 2.47-7.32). Furthermore, the risk of diffuse-type cancer increased as PG II level increased; it was significantly elevated with PG II level >= 30 ng/mL (HR = 3.81, 95% CI = 1.10-13.21). Using H. pylori antibody and PG levels' subgroups with an especially high or low cancer incidence rate could be identified. H. pylori-negative or indeterminate subjects with low PG level (PG I <= 30 ng/mL or PG I/II ratio <= 2.0) or H. pylori-positive subjects with antibody levels > 500 U/mL and a low PG level were among the subgroups with a high cancer incidence rate (over 400/100,000 person-years). In contrast, H. pylori-negative subjects with a PG I level > 70 ng/mL or a PG I/II ratio > 3.0 had the lowest risk; none of these subjects developed cancer. Thus, serum PG levels and/or H. pylori antibody levels can be used to predict the risk of cancer in individuals with H. pylori-related gastritis from the general population. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.