Summer rainfall variability in European Mediterranean mountains from the sixteenth to the twentieth century reconstructed from tree rings

Since the end of the last glacial period, European Mediterranean mountains have provided shelter for numerous species of Eurosiberian and Boreal origin. Many of these species, surviving at the southern limit of their range in Europe and surrounded by Mediterranean ones, are relatively intolerant to summer drought and are in grave danger of loss, as a result of increasingly long and frequent droughts in this region. This is the case of the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and the Austrian pine (Pinus nigra ssp. salzmannii) which are found on Central Iberian Peninsula at the edge of their natural range. We used a tree ring network of these two species to reconstruct past variations in summer rainfall. The reconstruction, based upon a tree ring composite chronology of the species, dates back to 1570 (adjusted R (2) = 0.49, P < 0.000001) and captures interannual to decadal scale variability in summer precipitation. We studied the spatial representativeness of the rainfall patterns and described the occurrence rate of extremes of this precipitation. To identify associations between macroclimatic factors and tree radial growth, we employed a principal component analysis to calculate the resultant of the relationship between the growth data of both species, using this resultant as a dependent variable of a multiple regression whose independent variables are monthly mean temperature and precipitation from the average records. Spatial correlation patterns between instrumental precipitation datasets for southern Europe and reconstructed values for the 1950-1992 period indicate that the reconstruction captures the regional signal of drought variability in the study region (the origin of this precipitation is convective: thermal low pressure zones induced in the inland northeastern areas of the Iberian Peninsula). There is a clear increase in the recurrence of extreme dry events as from the beginning of twentieth century and an abrupt change to drier conditions. There appears to be a tendency toward recurrent exceptionally dry summers, which could involve a significant change for the Eurosiberian refugee species.