Knowledge-based prediction of plan quality metrics in intracranial stereotactic radiosurgery

Purpose: The objective of this work was to develop a comprehensive knowledge-based methodology for predicting achievable dose-volume histograms (DVHs) and highly precise DVH-based quality metrics (QMs) in stereotactic radiosurgery/radiotherapy (SRS/SRT) plans. Accurate QM estimation can identify suboptimal treatment plans and provide target optimization objectives to standardize and improve treatment planning. Methods: Correlating observed dose as it relates to the geometric relationship of organs-at-risk (OARs) to planning target volumes (PTVs) yields mathematical models to predict achievable DVHs. In SRS, DVH-based QMs such as brain V-10Gy (volume receiving 10 Gy or more), gradient measure (GM), and conformity index (CI) are used to evaluate plan quality. This study encompasses 223 linear accelerator-based SRS/SRT treatment plans (SRS plans) using volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT), representing 95% of the institution's VMAT radiosurgery load from the past four and a half years. Unfiltered models that use all available plans for the model training were built for each category with a stratification scheme based on target and OAR characteristics determined emergently through initial modeling process. Model predictive accuracy is measured by the mean and standard deviation of the difference between clinical and predicted QMs, delta QM= QM(clin)-QM(pred), and a coefficient of determination, R-2. For categories with a large number of plans, refined models are constructed by automatic elimination of suspected suboptimal plans from the training set. Using the refined model as a presumed achievable standard, potentially suboptimal plans are identified. Predictions of QM improvement are validated via standardized replanning of 20 suspected suboptimal plans based on dosimetric predictions. The significance of the QM improvement is evaluated using the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Results: The most accurate predictions are obtained when plans are stratified based on proximity to OARs and their PTV volume sizes. Volumes are categorized into small (V-PTV < 2 cm(3)), medium (2 cm(3) < V-PTV < 25 cm(3)), and large (25 cm(3) < V-PTV). The unfiltered models demonstrate the ability to predict GMs to similar to 1 mm and fractional brain V-10Gy to similar to 25% for plans with large V-PTV and critical OAR involvements. Increased accuracy and precision of QM predictions are obtained when high quality plans are selected for the model training. For the small and medium V-PTV plans without critical OAR involvement, predictive ability was evaluated using the refined model. For training plans, the model predicted GM to an accuracy of 0.2 +/- 0.3 mm and fractional brain V-10Gy to 0.04 +/- 0.12, suggesting highly accurate predictive ability. For excluded plans, the average delta GM was 1.1 mm and fractional brain V-10Gy was 0.20. These delta QM are significantly greater than those of the model training plans (p < 0.001). For CI, predictions are close to clinical values and no significant difference was observed between the training and excluded plans (p = 0.19). Twenty outliers with delta GM > 1.35 mm were identified as potentially suboptimal, and replanning these cases using predicted target objectives demonstrates significant improvements on QMs: on average, 1.1 mm reduction in GM (p < 0.001) and 23% reduction in brain V-10Gy (p < 0.001). After replanning, the difference of dGM distribution between the 20 replans and the refined model training plans was marginal. Conclusions: The results demonstrate the ability to predict SRS QMs precisely and to identify suboptimal plans. Furthermore, the knowledge-based DVH predictions were directly used as target optimization objectives and allowed a standardized planning process that bettered the clinically approved plans. Full clinical application of this methodology can improve consistency of SRS plan quality in a wide range of PTV volume and proximity to OARs and facilitate automated treatment planning for this critical treatment site. (C) 2015 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.