Journal
INFLUENZA AND OTHER RESPIRATORY VIRUSES
Volume 6, Issue 3, Pages 167-175Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/j.1750-2659.2011.00288.x
Keywords
Cost-effectiveness; economics; influenza vaccine; pediatrics; universal vaccine
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Funding
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) [1U54GM088491-0109]
- National Library of Medicine [5R01LM009132-02]
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) University of Pittsburgh Center for Advanced Study of Informatics [1P01HK000086-01]
- MedImmune
- Merck Co.
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Background Limitations of the current annual influenza vaccine have led to ongoing efforts to develop a 'universal' influenza vaccine, i.e., one that targets a ubiquitous portion of the influenza virus so that the coverage of a single vaccination can persist for multiple years. Objectives To estimate the economic value of a 'universal' influenza vaccine compared to the standard annual influenza vaccine, starting vaccination in the pediatric population (2-18 year olds), over the course of their lifetime. Patient/Methods Monte Carlo decision analytic computer simulation model. Results Universal vaccine dominates (i.e., less costly and more effective) the annual vaccine when the universal vaccine cost <=$100/dose and efficacy >= 75% for both the 5- and 10-year duration. The universal vaccine is also dominant when efficacy is 50% and protects for 10 years. A $200 universal vaccine was only cost-effective when 75% efficacious for a 5-year duration when annual compliance was 25% and for a 10-year duration for all annual compliance rates. A universal vaccine is not cost-effective when it cost $200 and when its efficacy is <= 50%. The cost-effectiveness of the universal vaccine increases with the duration of protection. Conclusions Although development of a universal vaccine requires surmounting scientific hurdles, our results delineate the circumstances under which such a vaccine would be a cost-effective alternative to the annual influenza vaccine.
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