Journal
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS
Volume 28, Issue 4, Pages 3818-3825Publisher
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2013.2272326
Keywords
Functional kernel regression; short-term load forecasting; time series; wavelets
Categories
Funding
- Electricity Authority of Cyprus (EAC)
- Transmission System Operator, Cyprus (TSO)
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A novel functional time-series methodology for short-term load forecasting is introduced. The prediction is performed by means of a weighted average of past daily load segments, the shape of which is similar to the expected shape of the load segment to be predicted. The past load segments are identified from the available history of the observed load segments by means of their closeness to a so-called reference load segment. The latter is selected in a manner that captures the expected qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the load segment to be predicted. As an illustration, the suggested functional time-series forecasting methodology is applied to historical daily load data in Cyprus. Its performance is compared with some recently proposed alternative methodologies for short-term load forecasting.
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