Journal
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
Volume 14, Issue 2, Pages 871-882Publisher
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/TITS.2013.2247040
Keywords
Intelligent transportation systems; support vector machines; traffic forecasting
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Funding
- Foundation for Research and Innovation, University of Florence [SSAMM-2009]
- Italian Ministry of Education, University, and Research under PRIN project [2009LNP494]
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The literature on short-term traffic flow forecasting has undergone great development recently. Many works, describing a wide variety of different approaches, which very often share similar features and ideas, have been published. However, publications presenting new prediction algorithms usually employ different settings, data sets, and performance measurements, making it difficult to infer a clear picture of the advantages and limitations of each model. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we review existing approaches to short-term traffic flow forecasting methods under the common view of probabilistic graphical models, presenting an extensive experimental comparison, which proposes a common baseline for their performance analysis and provides the infrastructure to operate on a publicly available data set. Second, we present two new support vector regression models, which are specifically devised to benefit from typical traffic flow seasonality and are shown to represent an interesting compromise between prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. The SARIMA model coupled with a Kalman filter is the most accurate model; however, the proposed seasonal support vector regressor turns out to be highly competitive when performing forecasts during the most congested periods.
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