Safety Benefits of Forward Collision Warning, Brake Assist, and Autonomous Braking Systems in Rear-End Collisions

This paper examines the potential effectiveness of the following three precollision system (PCS) algorithms: 1) forward collision warning only; 2) forward collision warning and precrash brake assist; and 3) forward collision warning, precrash brake assist, and autonomous precrash brake. Real-world rear-end crashes were extracted from a nationally representative sample of collisions in the United States. A sample of 1396 collisions, corresponding to 1.1 million crashes, were computationally simulated as if they occurred, with the driver operating a precollision-system-equipped vehicle. A probability-based framework was developed to account for the variable driver reaction to the warning system. As more components were added to the algorithms, greater benefits were realized. The results indicate that the exemplar PCS investigated in this paper could reduce the severity (i.e., Delta V) of the collision between 14% and 34%. The number of moderately to fatally injured drivers who wore their seat belts could have been reduced by 29% to 50%. These collision-mitigating algorithms could have prevented 3.2% to 7.7% of rear-end collisions. This paper shows the dramatic reductions in serious and fatal injuries that a PCS, which is one of the first intelligent vehicle technologies to be deployed in production cars, can bring to highway safety when available throughout the fleet. This paper also presents the framework of an innovative safety benefits methodology that, when adapted to other emerging active safety technologies, can be employed to estimate potential reductions in the frequency and severity of highway crashes.