Corroboration and refinement of a method for differentiating landings from two stocks of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the California Current

Efforts to survey, assess and manage Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the California Current may depend on accurate differentiation of the purported two migrating stocks. The southern stock spans seasonally from southern Baja California, Mexico to Point Conception, California; the northern stock spans seasonally from Punta Eugenia, Mexico northwards to southern Alaska. Their seasonal north-south migrations are approximately synchronous within their respective domains, resulting in segregated spawning and different identities. A decade ago, a practical method was proposed for differentiating landings from the two stocks using concomitant measurements of sea-surface temperature (SST). Here, we corroborate and refine the method using regional indices of optimal and good potential habitat for the northern stock, and SST-based indices associated with the 99.9 and 100% confidence intervals of the potential habitat. For months when the index is,0.5, (i.e. when the minority of a fishing region probably includes potential northern stock habitat), the landings are attributed to the southern stock, and vice versa. We applied this method to regional monthly landings data from 2006-2011 and the results indicated that an average of 63-72 and 32-36% of the summertime landings at Ensenada, Mexico and San Pedro, southern California were probably from the southern stock, respectively, depending on the index used. Allocation error could be reduced if the landings were evaluated on finer spatio-temporal scales, particularly during habitat-transition periods. Our method may be used to improve estimates of northern stock biomass, spatial and length distributions, recruitment, and mortality.