Changes in Barents Sea ecosystem state, 1970-2009: climate fluctuations, human impact, and trophic interactions

Long time-series of data from the Barents Sea (BS) are analysed to contrast the climate, fishing pressure, plankton, pelagic fish, demersal fish, and interactions between trophic levels in a recent decade (2000-2009) with the period 1970-1999. During the past four decades, fishing pressure and climatic conditions have varied greatly in the BS, and stock levels have fluctuated substantially. Trophic control has changed from mainly bottom-up to top-down, then back to mainly bottom-up. No clear evidence for persistent ecological regimes was found. The past decade has been the warmest on record, with large stocks of demersal and pelagic fish, and increasing abundances of krill and shrimp. Except perhaps for the rather less-studied Arctic species, the short-term effect of the recent warming has been positive for BS stocks. However, as many of the long-established relationships and mechanisms in the BS seem to be changing, the long-term effects of warming are uncertain.