Hydrographic variability in Icelandic waters during recent decades and related changes in distribution of some fish species

Seasonal time-series of temperature and salinity around Iceland have been collected, with repeat observations at stations, since the start of the 1970s. After fairly cold years during the early 1990s, a reversal occurred during the mid-1990s and the period from 1996 to 2010 was one with warmer, more saline water in shelf seas around Iceland. Temperatures and salinities have been frequently above the long-term mean in the waters to the south and west of the country, and these conditions have also influenced the shelf area north of the country. Marked changes have also been observed in the distribution of many fish species during this warm period. Southern commercial species have extended farther north (e. g. haddock, monkfish, mackerel), a northern species is retreating (capelin), rare species and vagrants have been observed more frequently (e. g. greater fork beard, blue antimora, snake pipefish, sea lamprey, Ray's bream), and 31 species, from both shelf and oceanic waters, have been recorded for the first time since 1996. The most obvious explanation for these changes in the ecosystem has to be the warming of 1-2 degrees C in the waters south and west of Iceland during the past 15 years.