Will depleted populations of Pacific salmon recover under persistent reductions in survival and catastrophic mortality events?

Under Canada's Wild Salmon Policy, benchmarks between zones of biological status are required to distinguish populations requiring conservation attention (Red and Amber zones) from those that can be managed for production (Green zone). The recovery of depleted populations (i.e. from Red to Green) will depend in part on the choice of the lower benchmark. At a minimum, that benchmark should be set high enough to allow recovery within an acceptable time-frame in the absence of targeted fishing. Currently, benchmarks are evaluated and selected using simulation models that assess the probability of recovery to spawner abundance associated with the maximum sustainable yield within a specified time-frame. Guided by case examples, the evaluation is extended to include two scenarios of future conditions: persistent reductions in survival rates below the replacement level; and increased frequency of catastrophic mortality (die-off) events. Probabilities of recovery appear to be more sensitive to persistent reductions in survival than to increased probability of die-off events. The current lower benchmarks on spawner abundance and fishing mortality might not be sufficiently precautionary to allow recovery under those conditions.