Journal
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
Volume 59, Issue 7, Pages 1403-1417Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2013.842647
Keywords
DBM; NORA; flash flood forecasting
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Funding
- EU FP7 project IMPRINTS
- Natural Environment Research Council [ceh010010] Funding Source: researchfish
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Data-based mechanistic (DBM) models can offer a parsimonious representation of catchment dynamics. They have been shown to provide reliable accurate flood forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work, the DBM methodology is applied to forecast flash floods in a small Alpine catchment. Compared to previous DBM modelling studies, the catchment response is rapid. The use of novel radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts based on analogues to drive the DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. The characterization of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and a framework for its representation illustrated.
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