Journal
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
Volume 57, Issue 5, Pages 1000-1019Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2012.690881
Keywords
uncertainty; hydrological modelling; ensembles; predictions in ungauged basins; a priori parameter estimation; regional constraints; signatures; southern Africa
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Funding
- Water Research Commission (WRC) of South Africa [K5/1838]
- National Research Foundation (NRF)
- EPA STAR Early Grant [RD834196]
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The increasing demand for water in southern Africa necessitates adequate quantification of current freshwater resources. Watershed models are the standard tool used to generate continuous estimates of streamflow and other hydrological variables. However, the accuracy of the results is often not quantified, and model assessment is hindered by a scarcity of historical observations. Quantifying the uncertainty in hydrological estimates would increase the value and credibility of predictions. A model-independent framework aimed at achieving consistency in incorporating and analysing uncertainty within water resources estimation tools in gauged and ungauged basins is presented. Uncertainty estimation in ungauged basins is achieved via two strategies: a local approach for a priori model parameter estimation from physical catchment characteristics, and a regional approach to regionalize signatures of catchment behaviour that can be used to constrain model outputs. We compare these two sources of information in the data-scarce region of South Africa. The results show that both approaches are capable of uncertainty reduction, but that their relative values vary.
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