Journal
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL
Volume 53, Issue 4, Pages 671-684Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1623/hysj.53.4.671
Keywords
climate models; general circulation models; falsifiability; climate change; Hurst-Kolmogorov climate
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Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are Widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically Without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the Output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.
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