Estimation of potential changes in cereals production under climate change scenarios

This survey proposed a new methodology - iGAEZ (improved GAEZ), developed based on the GAEZ (Global Agro-Ecological Zones) model, capable of simulating crop yields on a global scale for wheat, potato, cassava, soybean, rice, sweet potato, maize, green beans. iGAEZ determines the optimum criteria of crop parameter of growth cycles to ensure best realistic crop yield combinations under comprehensive consideration of climate and crop condition. Global-scale crop yields were calculated using iGAEZ model for the period of 1990-1999. Through comparing simulated yields and FAO statistics, iGAEZ has demonstrated a very good ability to reproduce realistic crop yields on a global scale. We also predicted the impact of global warming on crop yields from the 1990s to 2090s by projecting five GCM outputs for AR4 under SRES A1B scenarios. According to the result, temperature rise will make many cultivated areas (eastern part of USA, India, eastern China, Africa) less productive. On the other hand, the regions with cold weather under current climate condition (Canada, northern Europe, northeastern China) become suitable for crop productivity under future climate scenario. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.